Antecedent (if this happens)
KXOWGRRANK-26AUGT20-RMCI
Will Rory McIlroy be ranked top 20 on the Official World Golf Ranking on Aug 3, 2026?
Series: KXOWGRRANK
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-08-03T14:00:00Z
Volume: 220
YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.9900
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Rory McIlroy is ranked in the top 20 (including ties) on the Official World Golf Ranking on August 3rd, 2026 at 10:00am EST, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGAR1TOP5-THOC26-RMCI
The Open Championship: Will Rory McIlroy finish top 5 in Round 1?
Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-07-16T16:00:00Z
Volume: 714
YES ask: 0.1800
NO ask: 0.8300
Last: 0.1800
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Rory McIlroy finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T08:01:51Z
Code version: ecbe685
Reasoning: World ranking snapshot doesn't determine Round 1 performance.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees):
-95.27%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.1500
+ ~$0.0124 est. fees
Days to maturity:
18
Hurdle yield:
4.23%
Excess yield:
-99.50%
BELOW HURDLE