Pair #13045

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXOWGRRANK-26AUGT20-RMCI

Will Rory McIlroy be ranked top 20 on the Official World Golf Ranking on Aug 3, 2026?

Series: KXOWGRRANK
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-08-03T14:00:00Z
Volume: 220

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rory McIlroy is ranked in the top 20 (including ties) on the Official World Golf Ranking on August 3rd, 2026 at 10:00am EST, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP5-THOC26-RMCI

The Open Championship: Will Rory McIlroy finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-07-16T16:00:00Z
Volume: 714

YES ask: 0.1800
NO ask: 0.8300
Last: 0.1800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rory McIlroy finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T08:01:51Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: World ranking snapshot doesn't determine Round 1 performance.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -95.27% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1500 + ~$0.0124 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -99.50% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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