Pair #13043

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP10-THOC26-MTHO

The Open Championship: Will Michael Thorbjornsen finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Michael Thorbjornsen
Expiration: 2026-07-16T16:00:00Z
Volume: 601

YES ask: 0.1500
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Michael Thorbjornsen finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-MTHO

The Open Championship: Will Michael Thorbjornsen finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Michael Thorbjornsen
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 2627

YES ask: 0.3500
NO ask: 0.8900
Last: 0.3500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Michael Thorbjornsen finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T08:01:51Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAR1TOP10-THOC26-SBUR/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-SBUR] A top-10 Round 1 finish doesn't guarantee a top-40 final tournament finish due to potential missed cut or collapse.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): N/A
Cost: $1.3500 + ~$0.0159 est. fees
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue