Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR1TOP10-THOC26-SBUR
The Open Championship: Will Sam Burns finish top 10 in Round 1?
Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Sam Burns
Expiration: 2026-07-16T16:00:00Z
Volume: 267
YES ask: 0.1700
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1700
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Sam Burns finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP40-THOC26-SBUR
The Open Championship: Will Sam Burns finish top 40?
Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Sam Burns
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1329
YES ask: 0.5000
NO ask: 0.9200
Last: 0.5100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Sam Burns finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T08:01:51Z
Code version: ecbe685
Reasoning: A top-10 Round 1 finish doesn't guarantee a top-40 final tournament finish due to potential missed cut or collapse.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees):
N/A
Cost:
$1.5000
+ ~$0.0175 est. fees
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A