Pair #13041

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP10-THOC26-SBUR

The Open Championship: Will Sam Burns finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Sam Burns
Expiration: 2026-07-16T16:00:00Z
Volume: 267

YES ask: 0.1700
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sam Burns finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-SBUR

The Open Championship: Will Sam Burns finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Sam Burns
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1329

YES ask: 0.5000
NO ask: 0.9200
Last: 0.5100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sam Burns finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T08:01:51Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: A top-10 Round 1 finish doesn't guarantee a top-40 final tournament finish due to potential missed cut or collapse.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): N/A
Cost: $1.5000 + ~$0.0175 est. fees
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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