Pair #13036

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26APAC-TKIM

Will Tom Kim finish as the top Asian/Oceanic golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Tom Kim
Expiration: 2026-07-20T02:38:37.305Z
Volume: 1614

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9300
Last: 0.1100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tom Kim records the lowest total strokes among all Asian/Oceanic golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR2LEAD-THOC26-TOK

Will Tom Kim lead at the end of Round 2 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Tom Kim
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 410

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tom Kim is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T08:01:32Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: Leading after Round 2 doesn't guarantee final tournament outcome among Asian/Oceanic golfers.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -83.15% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0100 + ~$0.0097 est. fees
Days to maturity: 4
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -87.38% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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