Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26APAC-TKIM
Will Tom Kim finish as the top Asian/Oceanic golfer in the tournament?
Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Tom Kim
Expiration: 2026-07-20T02:38:37.305Z
Volume: 1614
YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9300
Last: 0.1100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Tom Kim records the lowest total strokes among all Asian/Oceanic golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGAR2LEAD-THOC26-TOK
Will Tom Kim lead at the end of Round 2 in the The Open Championship?
Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Tom Kim
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 410
YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0900
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Tom Kim is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T08:01:32Z
Code version: ecbe685
Reasoning: Leading after Round 2 doesn't guarantee final tournament outcome among Asian/Oceanic golfers.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees):
-83.15%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.0100
+ ~$0.0097 est. fees
Days to maturity:
4
Hurdle yield:
4.23%
Excess yield:
-87.38%
BELOW HURDLE