Pair #13035

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26APAC-TKIM

Will Tom Kim finish as the top Asian/Oceanic golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Tom Kim
Expiration: 2026-07-20T02:38:37.305Z
Volume: 1614

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9300
Last: 0.1100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tom Kim records the lowest total strokes among all Asian/Oceanic golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP5-THOC26-TKIM

The Open Championship: Will Tom Kim finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Tom Kim
Expiration: 2026-07-16T16:00:00Z
Volume: 742

YES ask: 0.1400
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tom Kim finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T08:01:32Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: Round 1 top-5 doesn't guarantee overall tournament ranking among Asian/Oceanic golfers.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.93% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0700 + ~$0.0130 est. fees
Days to maturity: 4
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.16% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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