Pair #13033

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP5-THOC26-RMCI

The Open Championship: Will Rory McIlroy finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-07-16T16:00:00Z
Volume: 714

YES ask: 0.1800
NO ask: 0.8300
Last: 0.1800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rory McIlroy finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR2LEAD-THOC26-RMCI

Will Rory McIlroy lead at the end of Round 2 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 414

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rory McIlroy is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T08:01:32Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAR1TOP5-THOC26-TKIM/KXPGAR2LEAD-THOC26-TOK] Round 1 standing doesn't determine Round 2 leadership.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): N/A
Cost: $0.8900 + ~$0.0138 est. fees
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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