Pair #1303

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-ARAI

Valspar Championship: Will Aaron Rai finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Aaron Rai
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 5575

YES ask: 0.5400
NO ask: 0.5100
Last: 0.5400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Aaron Rai finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-ARAI

Will Aaron Rai win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Aaron Rai
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 1958921

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules If Aaron Rai wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:23:10Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 20 at the Valspar Championship has no logical connection to winning the Masters Tournament — these are entirely separate events.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.5110
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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