Pair #13028

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-HLI

Will Hao-Tong Li win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Hao-Tong Li
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 449890

YES ask: 0.0040
NO ask: 0.9970
Last: 0.0040

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Rules

If Hao-Tong Li wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26APAC-HLI

Will Hao-Tong Li finish as the top Asian/Oceanic golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Hao-Tong Li
Expiration: 2026-07-20T02:38:37.305Z
Volume: 607

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0600

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Rules

If Hao-Tong Li records the lowest total strokes among all Asian/Oceanic golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T08:01:32Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGATOUR-THOC26-TKIM/KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26APAC-TKIM] Winning the tournament means having the lowest overall strokes, which guarantees being the top Asian/Oceanic golfer.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.56% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0570 + ~$0.0042 est. fees
Days to maturity: 4
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -103.79% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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