Pair #13024

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26APAC-HLI

Will Hao-Tong Li finish as the top Asian/Oceanic golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Hao-Tong Li
Expiration: 2026-07-20T02:38:37.305Z
Volume: 607

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hao-Tong Li records the lowest total strokes among all Asian/Oceanic golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-HLI

The Open Championship: Will Hao-Tong Li finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Hao-Tong Li
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 4104

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 0.8900
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hao-Tong Li finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T08:01:32Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGATOP20-THOC26-TKIM/KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26APAC-TKIM] A top-20 finish doesn't ensure being the best Asian/Oceanic golfer, another could finish higher.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1200 + ~$0.0074 est. fees
Days to maturity: 4
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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