Pair #13022

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-HLI

The Open Championship: Will Hao-Tong Li make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Hao-Tong Li
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 2366

YES ask: 0.5100
NO ask: 0.5000
Last: 0.5100

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Rules

If Hao-Tong Li has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26APAC-HLI

Will Hao-Tong Li finish as the top Asian/Oceanic golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Hao-Tong Li
Expiration: 2026-07-20T02:38:37.305Z
Volume: 607

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Hao-Tong Li records the lowest total strokes among all Asian/Oceanic golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T08:01:32Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-TKIM/KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26APAC-TKIM] Making the cut doesn't guarantee having the lowest strokes among Asian/Oceanic golfers.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): >999% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.5600 + ~$0.0214 est. fees
Days to maturity: 2
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: >999% PROFITABLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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