Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26USA-SSCH
Will Scottie Scheffler finish as the top American golfer in the tournament?
Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-07-17T17:38:37.305023Z
Volume: 337
YES ask: 0.1800
NO ask: 0.8500
Last: 0.2000
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Scottie Scheffler records the lowest total strokes among all American golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP40-THOC26-SSCH
The Open Championship: Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 40?
Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 4318
YES ask: 0.8100
NO ask: 0.7800
Last: 0.6200
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Scottie Scheffler finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T08:01:10Z
Code version: ecbe685
Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26USA-JSPI/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JSPI] Being top American golfer doesn't guarantee a top 40 overall finish.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees):
-100.00%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.6600
+ ~$0.0197 est. fees
Days to maturity:
1
Hurdle yield:
4.23%
Excess yield:
-104.23%
BELOW HURDLE