Pair #13016

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26USA-CGOT

Will Chris Gotterup finish as the top American golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-07-17T17:38:37.305023Z
Volume: 381

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Chris Gotterup records the lowest total strokes among all American golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-CGOT

The Open Championship: Will Chris Gotterup finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 4297

YES ask: 0.5300
NO ask: 0.5100
Last: 0.5300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Chris Gotterup finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T08:01:10Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26USA-JSPI/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JSPI] Being top American golfer doesn't guarantee a top 40 overall finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.5000 + ~$0.0195 est. fees
Days to maturity: 1
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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