Pair #13012

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP5-THOC26-PREE

The Open Championship: Will Patrick Reed finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Patrick Reed
Expiration: 2026-07-16T16:00:00Z
Volume: 442

YES ask: 0.1300
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Patrick Reed finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-PREE

The Open Championship: Will Patrick Reed finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Patrick Reed
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 6381

YES ask: 0.5100
NO ask: 0.5400
Last: 0.5100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Patrick Reed finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T08:01:10Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAR1TOP5-THOC26-JSPI/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JSPI] A strong Round 1 doesn't guarantee a top 40 finish given possible collapse or withdrawal.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): N/A
Cost: $1.5100 + ~$0.0175 est. fees
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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