Pair #13008

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26USA-JSPI

Will Jordan Spieth finish as the top American golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-07-17T17:38:37.305023Z
Volume: 624

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan Spieth records the lowest total strokes among all American golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP5-THOC26-JSPI

The Open Championship: Will Jordan Spieth finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-07-16T16:00:00Z
Volume: 574

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan Spieth finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T08:01:10Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: Round 1 performance doesn't determine final standing among American golfers.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1100 + ~$0.0081 est. fees
Days to maturity: 1
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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