Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26LIV-VPER
Will Victor Perez finish as the top LIV golfer in the tournament?
Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Victor Perez
Expiration: 2026-07-20T02:00:00Z
Volume: 1000
YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0600
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Victor Perez records the lowest total strokes among all LIV golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP40-THOC26-VPER
The Open Championship: Will Victor Perez finish top 40?
Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Victor Perez
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 214
YES ask: 0.3900
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.4100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Victor Perez finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T08:01:10Z
Code version: ecbe685
Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26LIV-JRAH/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JRAH] Being top LIV golfer doesn't guarantee a top 40 overall finish if all LIV golfers play poorly.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees):
-100.00%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.3400
+ ~$0.0200 est. fees
Days to maturity:
4
Hurdle yield:
4.23%
Excess yield:
-104.23%
BELOW HURDLE