Pair #13005

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26LIV-BDEC

Will Bryson DeChambeau finish as the top LIV golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Bryson DeChambeau
Expiration: 2026-07-20T02:00:00Z
Volume: 638

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 0.9200
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Bryson DeChambeau records the lowest total strokes among all LIV golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-BDEC

The Open Championship: Will Bryson DeChambeau finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Bryson DeChambeau
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1190

YES ask: 0.4000
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.4000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Bryson DeChambeau finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T08:01:10Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26LIV-JRAH/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JRAH] Being top LIV golfer doesn't guarantee a top 40 overall finish if all LIV golfers play poorly.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3200 + ~$0.0220 est. fees
Days to maturity: 4
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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