Pair #13004

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26LIV-JRAH

Will Jon Rahm finish as the top LIV golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-07-20T02:00:00Z
Volume: 584

YES ask: 0.2200
NO ask: 0.8400
Last: 0.2200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jon Rahm records the lowest total strokes among all LIV golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JRAH

The Open Championship: Will Jon Rahm finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 2267

YES ask: 0.6600
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.6600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jon Rahm finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T08:01:10Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: Being top LIV golfer doesn't guarantee a top 40 overall finish if all LIV golfers play poorly.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.5000 + ~$0.0251 est. fees
Days to maturity: 4
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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