Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26LIV-JRAH
Will Jon Rahm finish as the top LIV golfer in the tournament?
Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-07-20T02:00:00Z
Volume: 584
YES ask: 0.2200
NO ask: 0.8400
Last: 0.2200
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Jon Rahm records the lowest total strokes among all LIV golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JRAH
The Open Championship: Will Jon Rahm finish top 40?
Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 2267
YES ask: 0.6600
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.6600
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Jon Rahm finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T08:01:10Z
Code version: ecbe685
Reasoning: Being top LIV golfer doesn't guarantee a top 40 overall finish if all LIV golfers play poorly.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees):
-100.00%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.5000
+ ~$0.0251 est. fees
Days to maturity:
4
Hurdle yield:
4.23%
Excess yield:
-104.23%
BELOW HURDLE