Pair #13003

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26LIV-JNIE

Will Joaquin Niemann finish as the top LIV golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Joaquin Niemann
Expiration: 2026-07-20T02:00:00Z
Volume: 211

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9100
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Joaquin Niemann records the lowest total strokes among all LIV golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-THOC26-JNIE

The Open Championship: Will Joaquin Niemann finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Joaquin Niemann
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 3296

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Joaquin Niemann finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T08:01:10Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGATOP5-THOC26-JRAH/KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26LIV-JRAH] Top 5 finish doesn't guarantee beating all other LIV golfers who could also be in top 5.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): 143.60% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9800 + ~$0.0103 est. fees
Days to maturity: 4
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: +139.37% PROFITABLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue