Pair #13

Antecedent (implies)

KXATPGRANDSLAM-26-DMED

Will Daniil Medvedev win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXATPGRANDSLAM
Entity: Daniil Medvedev
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 6982

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.1300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Daniil Medvedev wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (implied)

KXMOMEN-26-MED

Will Daniil Medvedev win the ATP Miami Open?

Series: KXMOMEN
Entity: Daniil Medvedev
Expiration: 2026-03-29T19:30:00Z
Volume: 2694

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Daniil Medvedev wins the 2026 ATP Miami Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-16T22:50:46Z

Reasoning: The Miami Open is not a Grand Slam tournament. Winning Miami does not imply winning a Grand Slam, and winning a Grand Slam does not imply winning Miami.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -1.25% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: 289
Hurdle yield: 4.17%
Excess yield: -5.42% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: rejected
Reviewed at: 2026-03-17T09:53:26Z

Authenticate

← Back to review queue