Pair #12999

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-CSUR

Will Caleb Surratt win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Caleb Surratt
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 9481

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

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Rules

If Caleb Surratt wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26LIV-CSUR

Will Caleb Surratt finish as the top LIV golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Caleb Surratt
Expiration: 2026-07-20T02:00:00Z
Volume: 233

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

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Rules

If Caleb Surratt records the lowest total strokes among all LIV golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T08:01:10Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGATOUR-THOC26-JRAH/KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26LIV-JRAH] Winning the tournament means having the lowest total strokes among all golfers, including all LIV golfers.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -85.48% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0200 + ~$0.0014 est. fees
Days to maturity: 4
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -89.71% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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