Pair #12998

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-LHER

Will Lucas Herbert win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Lucas Herbert
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 814843

YES ask: 0.0030
NO ask: 0.9980
Last: 0.0030

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Rules

If Lucas Herbert wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26LIV-LHER

Will Lucas Herbert finish as the top LIV golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Lucas Herbert
Expiration: 2026-07-20T02:00:00Z
Volume: 1000

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Lucas Herbert records the lowest total strokes among all LIV golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T08:01:10Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGATOUR-THOC26-JRAH/KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26LIV-JRAH] Winning the tournament means having the lowest total strokes among all golfers, including all LIV golfers.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -98.97% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0480 + ~$0.0035 est. fees
Days to maturity: 4
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -103.20% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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