Pair #12997

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-CSMI

Will Cameron Smith win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Cameron Smith
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1386467

YES ask: 0.0050
NO ask: 0.9960
Last: 0.0050

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Rules

If Cameron Smith wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26LIV-CSMI

Will Cameron Smith finish as the top LIV golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Cameron Smith
Expiration: 2026-07-20T02:00:00Z
Volume: 644

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Cameron Smith records the lowest total strokes among all LIV golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T08:01:10Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGATOUR-THOC26-JRAH/KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26LIV-JRAH] Winning the tournament means having the lowest total strokes among all golfers, including all LIV golfers.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -98.79% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0460 + ~$0.0036 est. fees
Days to maturity: 4
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -103.02% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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