Pair #12996

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-JNIE

Will Joaquin Niemann win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Joaquin Niemann
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 742502

YES ask: 0.0130
NO ask: 0.9880
Last: 0.0130

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Rules

If Joaquin Niemann wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26LIV-JNIE

Will Joaquin Niemann finish as the top LIV golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Joaquin Niemann
Expiration: 2026-07-20T02:00:00Z
Volume: 211

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9100
Last: 0.1200

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Rules

If Joaquin Niemann records the lowest total strokes among all LIV golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T08:01:10Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGATOUR-THOC26-JRAH/KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26LIV-JRAH] Winning the tournament means having the lowest total strokes among all golfers, including all LIV golfers.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.97% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0880 + ~$0.0071 est. fees
Days to maturity: 4
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.20% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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