Pair #12994

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-JRAH

Will Jon Rahm win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 774059

YES ask: 0.0390
NO ask: 0.9620
Last: 0.0390

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Rules

If Jon Rahm wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26LIV-JRAH

Will Jon Rahm finish as the top LIV golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-07-20T02:00:00Z
Volume: 584

YES ask: 0.2200
NO ask: 0.8400
Last: 0.2200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jon Rahm records the lowest total strokes among all LIV golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T08:01:10Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: Winning the tournament means having the lowest total strokes among all golfers, including all LIV golfers.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1820 + ~$0.0146 est. fees
Days to maturity: 4
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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