Pair #12993

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-CSMI

The Open Championship: Will Cameron Smith make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Cameron Smith
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 2173

YES ask: 0.5400
NO ask: 0.4700
Last: 0.5400

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Rules

If Cameron Smith has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26LIV-CSMI

Will Cameron Smith finish as the top LIV golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Cameron Smith
Expiration: 2026-07-20T02:00:00Z
Volume: 644

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Cameron Smith records the lowest total strokes among all LIV golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T08:01:10Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-JRAH/KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26LIV-JRAH] Making the cut doesn't guarantee lowest strokes among LIV golfers.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): >999% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.5200 + ~$0.0208 est. fees
Days to maturity: 2
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: >999% PROFITABLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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