Pair #12991

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-JRAH

The Open Championship: Will Jon Rahm make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 594

YES ask: 0.7800
NO ask: 0.2400
Last: 0.7800

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jon Rahm has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26LIV-JRAH

Will Jon Rahm finish as the top LIV golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-07-20T02:00:00Z
Volume: 584

YES ask: 0.2200
NO ask: 0.8400
Last: 0.2200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jon Rahm records the lowest total strokes among all LIV golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T08:01:10Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: Making the cut doesn't guarantee lowest strokes among LIV golfers.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): >999% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.4600 + ~$0.0248 est. fees
Days to maturity: 2
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: >999% PROFITABLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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