Pair #12990

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26LIV-VPER

Will Victor Perez finish as the top LIV golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Victor Perez
Expiration: 2026-07-20T02:00:00Z
Volume: 1000

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Victor Perez records the lowest total strokes among all LIV golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-VPER

Will Victor Perez lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Victor Perez
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 5254

YES ask: 0.0140
NO ask: 0.9920
Last: 0.0150

View on Kalshi

Rules If Victor Perez is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T08:01:10Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-JRAH/KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26LIV-JRAH] Leading after Round 1 doesn't guarantee final tournament outcome vs other LIV golfers.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): >999% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9640 + ~$0.0043 est. fees
Days to maturity: 4
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: >999% PROFITABLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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