Pair #12989

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26LIV-CSMI

Will Cameron Smith finish as the top LIV golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Cameron Smith
Expiration: 2026-07-20T02:00:00Z
Volume: 644

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Cameron Smith records the lowest total strokes among all LIV golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-CSMI

Will Cameron Smith lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Cameron Smith
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 21312

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 0.9990
Last: 0.0060

View on Kalshi

Rules If Cameron Smith is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T08:01:10Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-JRAH/KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26LIV-JRAH] Leading after Round 1 doesn't guarantee final tournament outcome vs other LIV golfers.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): 390.21% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9800 + ~$0.0027 est. fees
Days to maturity: 4
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: +385.98% PROFITABLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue