Pair #12988

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26LIV-JNIE

Will Joaquin Niemann finish as the top LIV golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Joaquin Niemann
Expiration: 2026-07-20T02:00:00Z
Volume: 211

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9100
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Joaquin Niemann records the lowest total strokes among all LIV golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-JNIE

Will Joaquin Niemann lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Joaquin Niemann
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 29704

YES ask: 0.0110
NO ask: 0.9910
Last: 0.0090

View on Kalshi

Rules If Joaquin Niemann is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T08:01:10Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-JRAH/KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26LIV-JRAH] Leading after Round 1 doesn't guarantee final tournament outcome vs other LIV golfers.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): >999% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9210 + ~$0.0065 est. fees
Days to maturity: 4
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: >999% PROFITABLE

Human Review

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