Pair #12986

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26LIV-JRAH

Will Jon Rahm finish as the top LIV golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-07-20T02:00:00Z
Volume: 584

YES ask: 0.2200
NO ask: 0.8400
Last: 0.2200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jon Rahm records the lowest total strokes among all LIV golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-JRAH

Will Jon Rahm lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 35705

YES ask: 0.0280
NO ask: 0.9760
Last: 0.0290

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jon Rahm is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T08:01:10Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 doesn't guarantee final tournament outcome vs other LIV golfers.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): >999% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.8680 + ~$0.0113 est. fees
Days to maturity: 4
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: >999% PROFITABLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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