Pair #12985

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26LIV-VPER

Will Victor Perez finish as the top LIV golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Victor Perez
Expiration: 2026-07-20T02:00:00Z
Volume: 1000

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Victor Perez records the lowest total strokes among all LIV golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-VPER

The Open Championship: Will Victor Perez finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Victor Perez
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 643

YES ask: 0.1900
NO ask: 0.8200
Last: 0.1900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Victor Perez finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T08:01:10Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGATOP20-THOC26-JRAH/KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26LIV-JRAH] Top 20 finish doesn't guarantee beating all other LIV golfers.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1400 + ~$0.0141 est. fees
Days to maturity: 4
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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