Pair #12984

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26LIV-CSMI

Will Cameron Smith finish as the top LIV golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Cameron Smith
Expiration: 2026-07-20T02:00:00Z
Volume: 644

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Cameron Smith records the lowest total strokes among all LIV golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-CSMI

The Open Championship: Will Cameron Smith finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Cameron Smith
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 6686

YES ask: 0.1500
NO ask: 0.8600
Last: 0.1400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Cameron Smith finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T08:01:10Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGATOP20-THOC26-JRAH/KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26LIV-JRAH] Top 20 finish doesn't guarantee beating all other LIV golfers.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1200 + ~$0.0110 est. fees
Days to maturity: 4
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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