Pair #12983

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26LIV-JNIE

Will Joaquin Niemann finish as the top LIV golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Joaquin Niemann
Expiration: 2026-07-20T02:00:00Z
Volume: 211

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9100
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Joaquin Niemann records the lowest total strokes among all LIV golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-JNIE

The Open Championship: Will Joaquin Niemann finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Joaquin Niemann
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 3182

YES ask: 0.2800
NO ask: 0.7300
Last: 0.2800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Joaquin Niemann finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T08:01:10Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGATOP20-THOC26-JRAH/KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26LIV-JRAH] Top 20 finish doesn't guarantee beating all other LIV golfers.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1900 + ~$0.0198 est. fees
Days to maturity: 4
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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