Pair #12981

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26LIV-JRAH

Will Jon Rahm finish as the top LIV golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-07-20T02:00:00Z
Volume: 584

YES ask: 0.2200
NO ask: 0.8400
Last: 0.2200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jon Rahm records the lowest total strokes among all LIV golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-JRAH

The Open Championship: Will Jon Rahm finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 6593

YES ask: 0.4500
NO ask: 0.5600
Last: 0.4400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jon Rahm finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T08:01:10Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: Top 20 finish doesn't guarantee beating all other LIV golfers.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2900 + ~$0.0267 est. fees
Days to maturity: 4
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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