Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26LIV-LHER
Will Lucas Herbert finish as the top LIV golfer in the tournament?
Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Lucas Herbert
Expiration: 2026-07-20T02:00:00Z
Volume: 1000
YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0500
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Lucas Herbert records the lowest total strokes among all LIV golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP10-THOC26-LHER
The Open Championship: Will Lucas Herbert finish top 10?
Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Lucas Herbert
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 2183
YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0400
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Lucas Herbert finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T08:01:10Z
Code version: ecbe685
Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGATOP10-THOC26-JRAH/KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26LIV-JRAH] Another LIV golfer could finish ahead of Rahm even if he's top 10.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees):
-38.69%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.0000
+ ~$0.0054 est. fees
Days to maturity:
4
Hurdle yield:
4.23%
Excess yield:
-42.92%
BELOW HURDLE