Pair #12979

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26LIV-LHER

Will Lucas Herbert finish as the top LIV golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Lucas Herbert
Expiration: 2026-07-20T02:00:00Z
Volume: 1000

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Lucas Herbert records the lowest total strokes among all LIV golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-LHER

The Open Championship: Will Lucas Herbert finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Lucas Herbert
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 2183

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Lucas Herbert finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T08:01:10Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGATOP10-THOC26-JRAH/KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26LIV-JRAH] Another LIV golfer could finish ahead of Rahm even if he's top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -38.69% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0000 + ~$0.0054 est. fees
Days to maturity: 4
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -42.92% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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