Pair #12977

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26LIV-JNIE

Will Joaquin Niemann finish as the top LIV golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Joaquin Niemann
Expiration: 2026-07-20T02:00:00Z
Volume: 211

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9100
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Joaquin Niemann records the lowest total strokes among all LIV golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-JNIE

The Open Championship: Will Joaquin Niemann finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Joaquin Niemann
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 440

YES ask: 0.1500
NO ask: 0.8600
Last: 0.1500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Joaquin Niemann finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T08:01:10Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGATOP10-THOC26-JRAH/KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26LIV-JRAH] Another LIV golfer could finish ahead of Rahm even if he's top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.86% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0600 + ~$0.0147 est. fees
Days to maturity: 4
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.09% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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