Pair #12973

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXLIVCOMPETE-27APR-BDEC

Bryson DeChambeau to compete in a LIV Golf Tournament in Q1 2027 (January 1, 2027 to March 31, 2027)?

Series: KXLIVCOMPETE
Entity: Bryson DeChambeau
Expiration: 2027-04-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 1011

YES ask: 0.2900
NO ask: 0.7800
Last: 0.2400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Bryson DeChambeau competes in a LIV Golf Tournament in Q1 2027 (January 1, 2027 to March 31, 2027), then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26LIV-BDEC

Will Bryson DeChambeau finish as the top LIV golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Bryson DeChambeau
Expiration: 2026-07-20T02:00:00Z
Volume: 638

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 0.9200
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Bryson DeChambeau records the lowest total strokes among all LIV golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T08:01:10Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXLIVCOMPETE-27APR-JRAH/KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26LIV-JRAH] Different tournaments/time periods with no logical connection.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): 18.27% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.8700 + ~$0.0177 est. fees
Days to maturity: 259
Hurdle yield: 4.48%
Excess yield: +13.79% PROFITABLE

Human Review

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