Pair #12972

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXLIVCOMPETE-27APR-JRAH

Jon Rahm to compete in a LIV Golf Tournament in Q1 2027 (January 1, 2027 to March 31, 2027)?

Series: KXLIVCOMPETE
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2027-04-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 276

YES ask: 0.2400
NO ask: 0.8400
Last: 0.2300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jon Rahm competes in a LIV Golf Tournament in Q1 2027 (January 1, 2027 to March 31, 2027), then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26LIV-JRAH

Will Jon Rahm finish as the top LIV golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-07-20T02:00:00Z
Volume: 584

YES ask: 0.2200
NO ask: 0.8400
Last: 0.2200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jon Rahm records the lowest total strokes among all LIV golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T08:01:10Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: Different tournaments/time periods with no logical connection.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -10.44% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0600 + ~$0.0214 est. fees
Days to maturity: 259
Hurdle yield: 4.48%
Excess yield: -14.92% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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