Pair #12971

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-CSMI

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Cameron Smith
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 13381

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Cameron Smith wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26LIV-CSMI

Will Cameron Smith finish as the top LIV golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Cameron Smith
Expiration: 2026-07-20T02:00:00Z
Volume: 644

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Cameron Smith records the lowest total strokes among all LIV golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T08:01:10Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JRAH/KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26LIV-JRAH] Rahm could win a different major (Masters, PGA, US Open) without even playing The Open as LIV leader.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -10.67% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0500 + ~$0.0033 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -15.11% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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