Pair #12970

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JNIE

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Joaquin Niemann
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 1911

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Joaquin Niemann wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26LIV-JNIE

Will Joaquin Niemann finish as the top LIV golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Joaquin Niemann
Expiration: 2026-07-20T02:00:00Z
Volume: 211

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9100
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Joaquin Niemann records the lowest total strokes among all LIV golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T08:01:10Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JRAH/KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26LIV-JRAH] Rahm could win a different major (Masters, PGA, US Open) without even playing The Open as LIV leader.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -18.22% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0900 + ~$0.0070 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -22.66% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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