Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGATOP10-VAC26-NDUN
Valspar Championship: Will Nick Dunlap finish top 10?
Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Nick Dunlap
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 10912
YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Nick Dunlap finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP20-VAC26-NDUN
Valspar Championship: Will Nick Dunlap finish top 20?
Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Nick Dunlap
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 885
YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Nick Dunlap finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:23:10Z
Reasoning: If Dunlap finishes top 10, he necessarily finishes top 20. The reverse does not hold — top 20 does not guarantee top 10.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.0200
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A