Pair #1297

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-NDUN

Valspar Championship: Will Nick Dunlap finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Nick Dunlap
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 10912

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Nick Dunlap finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-NDUN

Valspar Championship: Will Nick Dunlap finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Nick Dunlap
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 885

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Nick Dunlap finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:23:10Z

Reasoning: If Dunlap finishes top 10, he necessarily finishes top 20. The reverse does not hold — top 20 does not guarantee top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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