Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-BDEC
Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?
Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Bryson DeChambeau
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 32288
YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Bryson DeChambeau wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26LIV-BDEC
Will Bryson DeChambeau finish as the top LIV golfer in the tournament?
Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Bryson DeChambeau
Expiration: 2026-07-20T02:00:00Z
Volume: 638
YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 0.9200
Last: 0.1200
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Bryson DeChambeau records the lowest total strokes among all LIV golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T08:01:10Z
Code version: ecbe685
Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JRAH/KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26LIV-JRAH] Rahm could win a different major (Masters, PGA, US Open) without even playing The Open as LIV leader.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees):
-16.48%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.0800
+ ~$0.0064 est. fees
Days to maturity:
168
Hurdle yield:
4.44%
Excess yield:
-20.92%
BELOW HURDLE