Pair #12966

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-TKIM

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Tom Kim
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 40785

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tom Kim wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP5-THOC26-TKIM

The Open Championship: Will Tom Kim finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Tom Kim
Expiration: 2026-07-16T16:00:00Z
Volume: 742

YES ask: 0.1400
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tom Kim finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T08:00:46Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-SWOO/KXPGAR1TOP5-THOC26-WKIM] Winning a major in 2026 doesn't require a top5 Round1 finish at The Open specifically.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -24.65% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1300 + ~$0.0091 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -29.09% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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