Pair #12963

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-SWOO

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Si Woo Kim
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2812

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Si Woo Kim wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP5-THOC26-WKIM

The Open Championship: Will Si Woo Kim finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Si Woo Kim
Expiration: 2026-07-16T16:00:00Z
Volume: 375

YES ask: 0.1100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Si Woo Kim finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T08:00:46Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 doesn't require a top5 Round1 finish at The Open specifically.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -19.90% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1000 + ~$0.0075 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -24.34% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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