Pair #12961

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26USA-CYOU

Will Cameron Young finish as the top American golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Cameron Young
Expiration: 2026-07-17T17:38:37.305023Z
Volume: 202

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Cameron Young records the lowest total strokes among all American golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP10-THOC26-CAME

The Open Championship: Will Cameron Young finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Cameron Young
Expiration: 2026-07-16T16:00:00Z
Volume: 1439

YES ask: 0.1700
NO ask: 0.8800
Last: 0.2000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Cameron Young finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T08:00:46Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: A good Round 1 doesn't guarantee finishing as the top American overall.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1600 + ~$0.0106 est. fees
Days to maturity: 1
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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