Pair #12959

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-SBUR

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Sam Burns
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 22028

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sam Burns wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP10-THOC26-SBUR

The Open Championship: Will Sam Burns finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Sam Burns
Expiration: 2026-07-16T16:00:00Z
Volume: 267

YES ask: 0.1700
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sam Burns finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T08:00:46Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-CYOU/KXPGAR1TOP10-THOC26-CAME] Winning any major in 2026 doesn't require a top10 Round1 finish at The Open specifically.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -28.98% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1600 + ~$0.0106 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -33.42% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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