Pair #12958

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-CYOU

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Cameron Young
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 80594

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Cameron Young wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP10-THOC26-CAME

The Open Championship: Will Cameron Young finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Cameron Young
Expiration: 2026-07-16T16:00:00Z
Volume: 1439

YES ask: 0.1700
NO ask: 0.8800
Last: 0.2000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Cameron Young finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T08:00:46Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: Winning any major in 2026 doesn't require a top10 Round1 finish at The Open specifically.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -27.73% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1500 + ~$0.0112 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -32.17% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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