Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR2LEAD-THOC26-WCLA
Will Wyndham Clark lead at the end of Round 2 in the The Open Championship?
Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Wyndham Clark
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 946
YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Wyndham Clark is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP40-THOC26-WCLA
The Open Championship: Will Wyndham Clark finish top 40?
Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Wyndham Clark
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 2709
YES ask: 0.5200
NO ask: 0.5800
Last: 0.5400
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Wyndham Clark finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T08:00:46Z
Code version: ecbe685
Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAR2LEAD-THOC26-CMOR/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-CMOR] Leading after Round 2 does not guarantee a top 40 finish due to possible collapse or withdrawal.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees):
-99.99%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.5200
+ ~$0.0175 est. fees
Days to maturity:
17
Hurdle yield:
4.23%
Excess yield:
-104.22%
BELOW HURDLE