Pair #12953

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR2LEAD-THOC26-TOK

Will Tom Kim lead at the end of Round 2 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Tom Kim
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 410

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tom Kim is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-TKIM

The Open Championship: Will Tom Kim finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Tom Kim
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 3644

YES ask: 0.5200
NO ask: 0.4900
Last: 0.5200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tom Kim finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T08:00:46Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAR2LEAD-THOC26-CMOR/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-CMOR] Leading after Round 2 does not guarantee a top 40 finish due to possible collapse or withdrawal.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.99% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.5200 + ~$0.0175 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.22% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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