Pair #1295

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-VAC26-NDUN

Valspar Championship: Will Nick Dunlap finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Nick Dunlap
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1309

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Nick Dunlap finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-NDUN

Valspar Championship: Will Nick Dunlap finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Nick Dunlap
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 885

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Nick Dunlap finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:22:53Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 necessarily means finishing top 20 as well. The reverse does not hold — finishing top 20 does not imply finishing top 5.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue